原油市场整体表现为震荡式上行。月内主要驱动是围绕伊朗核协议谈成与仍未谈成反复炒作。从供需面来看，OPEC+在4月仅维持小幅增产，按原定增产计划，5月份开始会有一定增产，要关注实际增产落地情况。美国方面尽管油价重心上移，但产量仍持续维在1100万桶/日附近，这与我们反复提到的美国多数石油公司今年以来对上游资本支出有限，主要偿还去年债务为主，且拜登新政府能源政策以新能源为主这两方面密切相关，年内预计美国页岩油产量都难有明显放量。而正是如此，沙特在减产方面也表现的更为积极主动。需求端来看，全球疫情形势在5月份后期有所缓和，特别是欧美疫情形势较好，印度也自前期超高位回落，需求仍有望持续恢复。宏观面全球货币宽松政策短中期仍大概率不会收紧，美元指数持续弱势，利多原油价格。短期继续重点关注伊朗核协议情况及5月31日OPEC+会议进展。
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